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제목	WEEK IN REVIEW (2001.9.7)
작성일	2001-09-11	조회	2527
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NORTHEAST ASIA PEACE AND SECURITY NETWORK *** WEEK IN REVIEW *** September 07, 2001 The NAPSNet Week in Review highlights the major issues of the preceding week, providing links to relevant items in the NAPSNet Daily Report, Special Reports, Nuclear Policy Project Weekly Flash and the South Asian Nuclear Dialogue Weekly Update. The Week in Review also includes links to other relevant sources of analysis. A web version is available at: http://www.nautilus.org/napsnet/wir2001/0810.html Send any comments to the NAPSNet Coordinator at: napsnet@nautilus.org In this Report: Korea 1. Trilateral Coordination Talks 2. Inter-Korean Talks 3. Inter-Korean Relations 4. DPRK´s Possibility in Attending APEC 5. DPRK Food Aid 6. US Forces in ROK 7. New ROK Ambassador to PRC China 1. PRC-DPRK Relations 2. PRC Missile Development 3. Sino-US Missile Defense Talks 4. Sino-US Missile Defense Policy 5. Cross-Strait Relations Japan 1. Japan-US security cooperation 2. Security Policy of Self Defense Force 3. Self Defense Forces South Asia 1. India Security Policies 2. US-India Relations 3. PRC-India Relations 4. Pakistan-India Relations 5. India Arms Acquisitions 6. Pakistan Security Policies 7. Pakistan Policies Toward Afghanistan 8. PRC-Pakistan Relations 9. Russia-Pakistan Relations 10. Kashmir Diplomacy 11. Analysis on Kashmir 12. Sri Lankan Diplomacy Nuclear Weapons and Missile Defense 1. South Asia Nuclear Policy 2. Pan-Asia Nuclear Policy 3. US Missile Defense 4. Indian Missile Defense 5. Regional Strategic Relations 6. US Non-Proliferation Policy Korea 1. Trilateral Coordination Talks The US, Japan, and the ROK released a joint statement from the Trilateral Oversight and Coordination Group Meeting on September 6 which said the US is prepared to undertake serious discussions with North Korea without preconditions. The US expressed its hope that North Korea would positively respond to its call at an early date for discussions. The Tokyo meeting of the delegations from the three countries reviewed the situation on the Korean Peninsula, and shared information on the status of their respective bilateral relations with the DPRK. Trilateral Coordination Group Statement (NAPSNet Daily Report, Sept. 7, US) http://www.nautilus.org/napsnet/dr/0109/SEP07.html#item1 Trilateral Talks on DPRK (NAPSNet Daily Report, September 5, US) http://www.nautilus.org/napsnet/dr/0109/SEP05.html#item7 2. Inter-Korean Talks The DPRK accepted an ROK proposal Thursday to hold talks next week. The ROK made the proposal in a telephone call through its liaison office at Panmunjom. The Yonhap news agency reported that ROK deputy foreign minister Yim Sung-joon, said Thursday that the two sides should discuss easy issues such as family reunions and economic issues. However, ROK´s chief presidential spokesman Park Joon-young told foreign journalists they might also military issues. Also Thursday, Japan said it planned to send a government mission to the DPRK next week to make sure that rice it has donated to country is fairly distributed. Inter-Korean Talks (NAPSNet Daily Report, September 6, US) http://www.nautilus.org/napsnet/dr/0109/SEP06.html#item1 ROK-DPRK Talks (NAPSNet Daily Report, September 7, ROK) http://www.nautilus.org/napsnet/dr/0109/SEP07.html#item9 Inter-Korean Working-Level Talks (NAPSNet Daily Report, September 6, ROK) http://www.nautilus.org/napsnet/dr/0109/SEP06.html#item6 Inter-Korean Relations (NAPSNet Daily Report, September 6, PRC) http://www.nautilus.org/napsnet/dr/0109/SEP06.html#item8 3. Inter-Korean Relations ROK Foreign Minister Han Seung-soo said Wednesday that ROK President Kim Dae-jung´s engagement policy toward the DPRK is the best option, despite political turmoil that has weakened his mandate. Han said the ROK government would strive to insulate inter-Korean ties from political problems at home. The ROK National Assembly voted on September 4 for the dismissal of ROK Unification Minister Lim Dong-won, who had been criticized by opposition lawmakers as too lenient toward the DPRK government. The vote broke up Kim´s ruling coalition because its junior partner, the United Liberal Democrats, sided with the opposition and voted against Lim. Inter-Korean Relations (NAPSNet Daily Report, September 5, US) http://www.nautilus.org/napsnet/dr/0109/SEP05.html#item1 Inter-Korean Relations (NAPSNet Daily Report, September 6, ROK) http://www.nautilus.org/napsnet/dr/0109/SEP06.html#item8 ROK Sunshine Policy (NAPSNet Daily Report, September 5, ROK) http://www.nautilus.org/napsnet/dr/0109/SEP05.html#item6 4. DPRK´s Attendance at APEC ROK Foreign Minister Han Seung-soo said Thursday that the ROK does not support the idea of a possible visit by DPRK leader Kim Jong-il to Shanghai for the summit of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) forum next month, if it is pushed as an alternative to his promised visit to Seoul for a second inter-Korean summit. Technical difficulties notwithstanding, Han said that the idea is unrealistic because the North Korean leader has nothing substantial to gain from attending the APEC summit. The PRC Foreign Ministry did not confirm whether Jiang invited Kim to the APEC summit. DPRK´s Possibility in Attending APEC (NAPSNet Daily Report, September 6, ROK) http://www.nautilus.org/napsnet/dr/0109/SEP07.html#item10 5. DPRK Food Aid The DPRK´s official Korean Central News Agency reported on September 6 that the PRC promised during a presidential trip to the DPRK to give the nation 200,000 tons of food and 30,000 tons of diesel fuel. Official PRC media had mentioned the food grants repeatedly during PRC President Jiang Zemin´s trip to the DPRK this week, but had not said how much aid was involved. KCNA said the said the gift was in connection with the damage caused by an unprecedentedly long spell of drought that hit it this spring. DPRK Food Aid (NAPSNet Daily Report, September 7, US) http://www.nautilus.org/napsnet/dr/0109/SEP07.html#item2 6. US Forces in ROK The DPRK Foreign Ministry issued a statement overnight by the Korea Central News Agency which called on the US to withdraw its forces from the ROK. The DPRK blamed the tough and hostile US Bush administration policies for stalled inter-Korean relations. It also said that The Bush administration defined the DPRK as the ´No. 1 enemy´ and is unilaterally forcing it to ´reduce conventional force´ in a bid to disarm and stifle it by force. A commentary in the DPRK´s Rodong Shinmun also attacked US military proposals to shift the emphasis of US security policy to Asia from Europe. US Forces in ROK (NAPSNet Daily Report, September 7, US) http://www.nautilus.org/napsnet/dr/0109/SEP07.html#item3 7. New ROK Ambassador to PRC In a Cabinet reshuffle, ROK President Kim Dae-jung appointed Hong Soon- young, a 64-year-old career diplomat and former foreign minister who has been serving as ambassador to the PRC, as Unification Minister on Friday. Hong told Associated Press Television News in Beijing that the inter-Korean talks slated September 15 might provide some stimulus to the resumption of dialogue between North Korea and the United States. New ROK Ambassador to PRC (NAPSNet Daily Report, September 7, US) http://www.nautilus.org/napsnet/dr/0109/SEP07.html#item4 China 1. PRC-DPRK Relations PRC President Jiang Zemin declared renewed confidence in PRC relations with the DPRK after his first visit to the nation. The PRC´s official Xinhua News Agency cited Jiang as saying in a message of thanks to Kim, The Chinese side is fully confident in the long-term and steady development of ties with the DPRK. Liu Hongcai and Wang Jiarui, two officials who accompanied Jiang, said the three formal meetings and several informal discussions between the two leaders furthered what they called the crucial relationship between the countries. DPRK-PRC Relations (NAPSNet Daily Report, September 5, US) http://www.nautilus.org/napsnet/dr/0109/SEP05.html#item2 DPRK-PRC Talks (NAPSNet Daily Report, September 4, US) http://www.nautilus.org/napsnet/dr/0109/SEP04.html#item1 PRC-DPRK Relations (NAPSNet Daily Report, September 6, ROK) http://www.nautilus.org/napsnet/dr/0109/SEP06.html#item9 DPRK-PRC Summit Talks (NAPSNet Daily Report, September 5, ROK) http://www.nautilus.org/napsnet/dr/0109/SEP05.html#item9 2. PRC Missile Development US Defense Secretary Donald H. Rumsfeld said on September 6 that the PRC strategic missile buildup reflects the PRC´s seriousness of purpose in becoming a global power. Rumsfeld said that intelligence and press reports show that the PRC has been building up its military forces with spending increases for defense in double-digit percentage ranges of its overall government spending for the past several years. He added that PRC writings and statements about their military show a high degree of compatibility between what they´re saying and what they´re doing militarily. US Analysis of PRC Missile Buildup (NAPSNet Daily Report, September 7, US) http://www.nautilus.org/napsnet/dr/0109/SEP07.html#item4 The Washington Times said that US intelligence agencies detected the PRC military´s formation of the first missile units equipped with Dong Feng- 31 missiles in July, and the US Defense Department believes the first missiles will be fielded by the end of the year. According to US intelligence officials, an additional flight test is expected in the near future. Officials said one classified US intelligence report concluded that the DF-31 will have its first operational capability by the end of the year. PRC Missile Development (NAPSNet Daily Report, September 6, US) http://www.nautilus.org/napsnet/dr/0109/SEP06.html#item2 A PRC diplomat, speaking to reporters at a background briefing, said the PRC has no plans to test its nuclear weapons. The official said the PRC is a signator to the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty and there are other ways to prove the reliability of nuclear weapons, through computer simulation. However, the diplomat said, it was reasonable for the PRC to forge ahead with the modernization of its military, including its nuclear weapons. PRC Nuclear Testing (NAPSNet Daily Report, September 6, US) http://www.nautilus.org/napsnet/dr/0109/SEP06.html#item3 3. Sino-US Missile Defense Talks The PRC said on September 6 that its foreign minister, Tang Jiaxuan, would pay an official visit to the US from September 20 to 21 to discuss missile proliferation and prepare for a Sino-US summit in October. PRC Foreign Ministry spokesman Zhu Bangzao told a news conference Tang would meet US Secretary of State Colin Powell and other US leaders before attending the UN General Assembly. Sino-US Missile Defense Talks (NAPSNet Daily Report, September 6, US) http://www.nautilus.org/napsnet/dr/0109/SEP06.html#item4 Sino-US Relations (NAPSNet Daily Report, September 6, RF) http://www.nautilus.org/napsnet/dr/0109/SEP06.html#item14 PRC Views on US Missile Defense (NAPSNet Daily Report, September 5, US) http://www.nautilus.org/napsnet/dr/0109/SEP05.html#item3 PRC Foreign Ministry spokesman Zhu Bangzao said on September 4 that if the US formally proposes missile defense consultations, the PRC will seriously consider it. Zhu added that the PRC has no intention of taking part in any nuclear arms race and does not approve of any country seeking a strategic edge over others through a nuclear arms race or the development of missile defense systems. Sino-US Relations (NAPSNet Daily Report, September 6, PRC) http://www.nautilus.org/napsnet/dr/0109/SEP06.html#item10 4. Sino-US Missile Defense Policy According to senior US administration officials, the US is seeking to overcome PRC opposition to its missile defense program by telling PRC leaders that it has no objections to the country´s plans to build up its nuclear missiles. One senior official said that in the future, the US and the PRC might also discuss resuming underground nuclear tests if they are needed to assure the safety and reliability of their arsenals. Some administration officials say the purpose of the new approach is to convince the PRC that the administration´s plans for a missile shield are not aimed at undercutting the PRC´s arsenal, but rather at countering threats from so-called rogue states. New Sino-US Missile Defense Policy http://www.nautilus.org/napsnet/dr/0109/SEP04.html#item3 The US Bush administration denied that its plan to update the PRC on US missile defense plans is a signal that it condones a nuclear weapons buildup by the PRC. US White House spokesman Ari Fleischer said on September 2 that the PRC will get an update on the US plans before US President George W. Bush visits Beijing. Fleischer said the US policy remains unchanged in discouraging the PRC and other nations from testing and building nuclear arsenals. He said US officials just want to convince the PRC and others that US plans for a missile shield would counter threats from rogue nations rather than compromise their defense systems. Reactions to New Sino-US Missile Defense Policy (NAPSNet Daily Report, September 4, US) http://www.nautilus.org/napsnet/dr/0109/SEP04.html#item3 An opinion article by Bates Gill, director of the Brookings Center for Northeast Asian Policy Studies, and James Mulvenon, an associate political scientist at RAND said that the announcement and consequent withdrawal of the US Bush Administration´s statements suggesting that they were not opposed to the PRC´s increase in its nuclear stockpile points to the main question of how the US should counter the PRC´s small nuclear force, in the context of the PRC´s abilities to develop new weapons and its opposition to missile defense. The article concluded that it is clearly in the interests of both nations that the PRC maintain the smallest effective nuclear deterrent possible. Analysis of Sino-US Nuclear Strategy (NAPSNet Daily Report, September 7, US) http://www.nautilus.org/napsnet/dr/0109/SEP07.html#item6 5. Cross-Strait Relations Taiwan Foreign Minister Tien Hung-mao said on September 6 that he would welcome more extensive bilateral talks with the PRC at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) meeting under way in Suzhou, PRC. Tien said a meeting already set for Friday between finance ministers from Taiwan and the PRC was simply a matter of protocol and that contacts between the two delegations should be deepened. Tien said that Taiwan´s top priority must be to step up our efforts to maintain the current balance of power in order to stabilize the region and keep the peace. In addition to upgrading relations with the US and Japan, Taiwan was also striving to obtain sources of military hardware. Cross-Strait Relations (NAPSNet Daily Report, September 7, US) http://www.nautilus.org/napsnet/dr/0109/SEP07.html#item7 The US was urged again on September 4 by PRC Foreign Ministry spokesman Zhu Bangzao to adhere to its commitments on the Taiwan question and contribute to stability across the Taiwan Straits. Zhu made this comment following a report where a senior official with the US Department of Defense warned the PRC not to underestimate the US´s determination and ability in its military involvement in Taiwan. Sino-US Relations (NAPSNet Daily Report, September 6, PRC) http://www.nautilus.org/napsnet/dr/0109/SEP06.html#item10 Japan 1. Japan-US security cooperation The Japanese Defense Agency outlined an action plan for cooperating with US forces during foreign attacks on Japan or emergencies in areas surrounding it. An outline of the scheme is likely to be submitted to the two plus two meeting of foreign and defense ministers of the two countries, expected to be held in the US late September. The panel will study details and update the plans as situations change. Japan-US security cooperation (NAPSNet Daily Report, September 7, Japan) http://www.nautilus.org/napsnet/dr/0109/SEP07.html#item11 2. Security Policy of Self Defense Force The Japanese Defense Agency plans to shift priority of its defense outline from large-scale military invasions by the former Soviet Union to guerrilla incursions, sea intrusions, nuclear accidents and natural disasters. The agency also plans to reassign SDF units and reinforce the SDF´s presence in Okinawa and the southern seas where PRC navy vessels have often appeared. The agency also must deal with technological advances in military communications as well as Japan-US joint research on a missile defense system. The new outline will also respond to public expectations for the SDF to be sent to areas hit by natural disasters. SDF participation in UN peacekeeping operations will also be stressed in the outline. Security Policy of Self Defense Force (NAPSNet Daily Report, Sept. 7, Japan) http://www.nautilus.org/napsnet/dr/0109/SEP07.html#item12 3. Self Defense Forces According to declassified US documents, the Japanese Maritime Self Defense Force ships and aircrafts that participated in a 1984 exercise with US forces was a de facto violation of the Japanese Constitution. The participation of MSDF vessels and aircraft under US command is an instance of the exercise of the right to collective self-defense, which is prohibited by the Constitution. An aircraft carrier battle group of the US Seventh Fleet has taken part in the MSDF´s annual fall exercises since 1984. Alleged SDF Constitutional Violation (NAPSNet Daily Report, Sept. 7, Japan) http://www.nautilus.org/napsnet/dr/0109/SEP07.html#item13 Between 300 and 400 Ground Self Defense Force troops would go to Ease Timor next spring to take part in peacekeeping operations, according to Japanese government sources. The troops will likely to be involved in road construction and would constitute the first large-scale deployment of SDF troops on an overseas peacekeeping operation since the mission to Cambodia in 1992. SDF´s Peacekeeping Operation in East Timor (NAPSNet Daily Report, September 7, Japan) http://www.nautilus.org/napsnet/dr/0109/SEP07.html#item15 *South Asia 1. India Security Policies The Indian government is reportedly enlisting armed forces personnel to promote key foreign policy goals by making diplomatic contacts with the militaries of other important countries. India Security Policies (SANDNet Weekly Update, Vol. 2 #36) http://www.nautilus.org/sand/index.html#item7 2. US-India Relations The US and India reportedly have decided to resume their regular military dialogue. US-India Relations (SANDNet Weekly Update, Vol. 2 #36) http://www.nautilus.org/sand/index.html#item8 3. PRC-India Relations Hua Junduo, the new PRC envoy to India, called for the two countries to improve relations and solve their boundary dispute. Meanwhile, former Indian Defence Minister George Fernandes stated that India is neglecting its border with the PRC . China-India Relations (SANDNet Weekly Update, Vol. 2 #36) http://www.nautilus.org/sand/index.html#item9 4. Pakistan-India Relations An Indian Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) spokesperson rejected

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