SUMMARY ................................................................................................................................................................ 5 KEY LIMITS TO THE DATA .................................................................................................................................................... 5 THE ASYMMETRIC OR IRREGULAR WARFARE BALANCE .................................................................................................. 7 THE NUCLEAR AND CBRN WARFARE BALANCE ............................................................................................................... 8 THE BALANCE OF WEAPONS OF MASS EFFECTIVENESS AND “OFFENSIVE” VS. “DEFENSIVE” WEAPONS ............ 11 THE BALANCE OF DIFFERENT PERCEPTIONS ................................................................................................................... 12 SECTION 1: KOREAN AND NORTHEAST ASIA MILITARY EXPENDITURES AND COMPARATIVE RESOURCES .......................................................................................................................................................... 13 EAST ASIAN MILITARY SPENDING .................................................................................................................................... 13 DPRK Military Spending ................................................................................................................................................... 13 DPRK AND ROK MILITARY MODERNIZATION ................................................................................................................ 14 DPRK AND ROK CAPACITY FOR MILITARY EFFORTS .................................................................................................... 14 Figure 1.1: Military Expenditures as a Percentage of GDP: 2000-2009 (SIPRI) ...................................................................... 16 Figure 1.2: Defense Expenditures as a Percentage of GDP (IISS): 2006-2010 .......................................................................... 17 Figure 1.3: Military Expenditures by the Major Asian Powers: 2000-2010 (SIPRI) .............................................................. 18 Figure 1.4: Northeast Asian Defense Expenditures: 2000-2010 (IISS) ........................................................................................ 19 Figure 1.5: Northeast Asian Per Capita Defense Expenditures (USD): 2007-2010 (IISS) ................................................... 20 Figure 1.6: The DPRK Defense Budget......................................................................................................................................................... 21 Figure 1.7: Military Modernization Trends on Korean Peninsula ................................................................................................... 22 Figure 1.8: Defense Reform 2020 (2005) Plans for ROK Modernization .................................................................................... 25 SECTION 2: THE CONVENTIONAL MILITARY BALANCE IN THE KOREAS AND NORTHEAST ASIA .................................................................................................................................................................................. 28 UNCERTAIN PATTERNS OF CONFLICT AND ESCALATION ............................................................................................... 28 LOOKING AT KEY TRENDS .................................................................................................................................................. 30 WESTERN DATA FROM INTERNATIONAL INSTITUTE OF STRATEGIC STUDIES ........................................................... 30 DATA FROM KOREAN DEFENSE WHITE PAPERS ............................................................................................................. 32 DATA FROM THE JAPANESE WHITE PAPER FOR 2010 ................................................................................................... 32 INTERNATIONAL INSTITUTE OF STRATEGIC STUDIES CONVENTIONAL FORCE ESTIMATES ..................................... 34 Figure 2.2a: Army Manpower and Equipment in Northeast Asia ................................................................................................... 34 Figure 2.2b: Northeast Asian Modern Main Battle Tanks versus Total Holdings: 2011 ..................................................... 37 Figure 2.2c: Northeast Asian Armored Fighting Vehicles: 2011 ..................................................................................................... 38 Figure 2.2d: Northeast Asian Modern AFVs (MBTs, APCs, AAVs, AIFVs) versus Total Holdings of Other Armored Vehicles: 2011 ........................................................................................................................................................................................................ 39 Figure 2.2e: Northeast Asian Artillery Strength: 2011 ........................................................................................................................ 40 Figure 2.3a: Navy Manpower and Equipment in Northeast Asia .................................................................................................... 41 Figure 2.3b: Northeast Asian Naval Combat Ships: 2011 .................................................................................................................... 45 Figure 2.3c: Northeast Asian Naval Combat Ships by Category: 2011 ........................................................................................ 46 Figure 2.3d: Northeast Asian Submarines by Type: 2011 ................................................................................................................. 47 Figure 2.4a: Air Force Manpower and Equipment in Northeast Asia............................................................................................ 47 Figure 2.4b: Northeast Asian Fixed Wing Combat Aircraft by Branch: 2011 ........................................................................... 49 Figure 2.4c: Northeast Asian Fixed Wing Combat Aircraft by Type: 2011 ................................................................................. 50 Figure 2.4d: Northeast Asian Rotary Wing Combat Aircraft by Branch: 2011 ......................................................................... 51 Figure 2.4e: Northeast Asian Rotary Wing Aircraft by Type: 2011 ............................................................................................... 52 Figure 2.4f: Northeast Asian Modern Air Force Combat Aircraft versus Total Combat Aircraft: 2011 ....................... 53 Figure 2.5a: Korean and Northeast Asian Air/Missile Defenses ...................................................................................................... 54 Figure 2.5b: Korean and Northeast Asian Air/Missile Defenses 2011 ......................................................................................... 55 Figure 2.5c: Northeast Asian Air Force Air Defenses: 2010 .............................................................................................................. 56 REPUBLIC OF KOREA (ROK) CONVENTIONAL FORCE ESTIMATES .............................................................................. 57 Figure 2.6a: ROK Estimate of Korean Force Balance in 2010: Manpower .................................................................................. 57 Figure 2.6b: ROK Estimate of Korean Force Balance in 2010: Army ............................................................................................. 58 Figure 2.6c: ROK Estimate of Korean Force Balance in 2010: Navy .............................................................................................. 59 Figure 2.6d: ROK Estimate of Korean Force Balance in 2010: Air Force ..................................................................................... 60 Cordesman: The Korean Military Balance 5/6/11 Page 3 Figure 2.6e: ROK Estimate of Northeast Asian Force Balance in 2010: Manpower ............................................................... 61 Figure 2.6f: ROK Estimate of Northeast Asian Force Balance in 2010: Army ........................................................................... 62 Figure 2.6g: ROK Estimate of Northeast Asian Force Balance in 2010: Navy ........................................................................... 63 Figure 2.6h: ROK Estimate of Northeast Asian Force Balance in 2010: Air Force .................................................................. 64 Figure 2.6i: ROK Estimates of DPRK Military Manpower Trends from 2004 to 2010 .......................................................... 65 Figure 2.6j: ROK Estimates of DPRK Army Equipment Trends from 2004 to 2010 ............................................................... 65 Figure 2.6k: ROK Estimates of DPRK Navy Equipment Trends from 2004 to 2010 .............................................................. 66 Figure 2.6l: ROK Estimates of DPRK Air Force Equipment Trends from 2004 to 2010 ....................................................... 66 Figure 2.6m: ROK Estimates of ROK Manpower Trends from 2004 to 2010 ............................................................................ 67 Figure 2.6n: ROK Estimates of ROK Army Equipment Trends from 2004 to 2010 ................................................................ 67 Figure 2.6o: ROK Estimates of ROK Navy Equipment Trends from 2004 to 2010 ................................................................. 68 Figure 2.6p: ROK Estimates of ROK Air Force Equipment Trends from 2004 to 2010 ........................................................ 68 GOVERNMENT OF JAPAN CONVENTIONAL FORCE ESTIMATES ...................................................................................... 69 Figure 2.7a: Japanese Summary Estimates of Forces on the Korean Peninsula in 2010 ..................................................... 69 Figure 2.7b: Japanese Estimates of Japanese Self Defense Forces .................................................................................................. 70 Figure 2.7c: Japanese Estimates of Chinese Armed Forces in 2010 ............................................................................................... 71 SECTION 3: US FORCES IN KOREA AND THE PACIFIC THE PACIFIC ................................................... 72 US FORCES IN KOREA .......................................................................................................................................................... 72 US FORCES IN JAPAN AND USPACOM .............................................................................................................................. 76 Figure 3.1: Japanese Estimates of US, ROK, and DPRK Forces in the Korean Peninsula ...................................................... 78 Figure 3.2: Relocation of US Forces in Korea from 2006 ..................................................................................................................... 79 Figure 3.3: Japanese Estimates of US Forces Japan (USFJ) in 2010 ................................................................................................ 80 Figure 3.4: US Forces in the Pacific in 2010: Equipment by Type and Location ...................................................................... 80 Figure 3.5: US Forces in the Pacific in 2010: Forces by Role and Location ................................................................................ 83 SECTION 4: SPECIAL, ASYMMETRIC, AND PARAMILITARY FORCES .................................................. 85 SPECIAL AND ASYMMETRIC FORCES ................................................................................................................................. 86 PARAMILITARY, POLICE, AND INTERNAL SECURITY FORCES ........................................................................................ 87 Figure 4.1: Northeast Asian Special Forces ............................................................................................................................................... 88 Figure 4.2 DPRK Infiltration Routes: Tunnels ......................................................................................................................................... 91 Figure 4.3: DPRK Artillery ................................................................................................................................................................................. 93 Figure 4.4: Reserve and Paramilitary Forces ........................................................................................................................................... 94 Figure 4.5: Internal Security Portions of US State Department Human Rights Report: Democratic People's Republic of Korea ................................................................................................................................................................................................... 95 Figure 4.6: Internal Security Portions of US State Department Human Rights Report: Republic of Korea ............. 100 SECTION 5: COUNTERTERRORISM, TERRORISM AND LOW-LEVEL ASYMMETRIC WARFARE ................................................................................................................................................................................ 103 Figure 5.1 Counterterrorism and Terrorism in the DPRK ............................................................................................................... 105 Figure 5.2 Counterterrorism and Terrorism in the Republic of Korea (ROK) ....................................................................... 106 SECTION 6: KOREAN MISSILE AND WMD FORCES ................................................................................. 107 DPRK NUCLEAR DEVELOPMENTS ................................................................................................................................. 107 Figure 6.1 Estimates of DPRK Plutonium Production (as of 2006) ............................................................................................. 109 Weaponization ................................................................................................................................................................... 110 The Early Program ........................................................................................................................................................... 111 Denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula and the 1993-94 Crisis ........................................................... 112 The Collapse of the Agreed Framework (1994-2003) ...................................................................................... 113 Uranium Enrichment and Renewed Crisis ............................................................................................................. 114 The October 2006 Test and 2007 Accords ............................................................................................................. 115 The May 2009 Test ........................................................................................................................................................... 116 Facilities ................................................................................................................................................................................ 117 Figure 6.2 Known Disablement Steps at Yongbyon (as of 20 Jan 2011) ................................................................................... 119 Figure 6.3 North Korean Nuclear Power Reactor Projects (as of January 2011) ................................................................. 120 Figure 6.4 IISS List of Major North Korean Nuclear Sites (as of January 2004) .................................................................... 121 Figure 6.5 Map of Major North Korean Nuclear Sites ........................................................................................................................ 122 Recent Developments ...................................................................................................................................................... 122 Cordesman: The Korean Military Balance 5/6/11 Page 4 Probable Weaponization .............................................................................................................................................. 123 DPRK MISSILE DEVELOPMENTS .................................................................................................................................... 123 Figure 6.6 ROK Ministry of National Defense DPRK Missile Timeline (as of 2008) ............................................................ 125 Figure 6.7 DPRK Missile Arsenal ................................................................................................................................................................. 126 Figure 6.8 ROK Ministry of National Defense Estimates of DPRK Missile Range ................................................................. 127 Figure 6.9 Japanese Ministry of Defense Estimates of DPRK Missile Range ........................................................................... 127 The Hwas？ng and Toksa Programs .......................................................................................................................... 128 The Nodong ......................................................................................................................................................................... 128 The Taepogong Program .............................................................................................................................................. 129 Figure 6.10 Estimates of DPRK Missile Range ？ Northeast Asia ................................................................................................... 131 Figure 6.11 DPRK Missile Launches .......................................................................................................................................................... 132 The Musadan ....................................................................................................................................................................... 132 Facilities ................................................................................................................................................................................ 133 Figure 6.12 Possible Locations of DPRK Nuclear Warhead and Missile Facilities ............................................................... 135 DPRK CHEMICAL/BIOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENTS ........................................................................................................ 136 Chemical ................................................................................................................................................................................ 136 Figure 6.13 DPRK Possible CW Agents ..................................................................................................................................................... 137 Figure 6.14 Defector Reports on DPRK CW Program (as of 2004).............................................................................................. 140 Figure 6.15 Map of Possible DPRK Chemical Facilities ..................................................................................................................... 141 Figure 6.16 Major DPRK Civilian Chemical Production Facilities (as of 2004) ..................................................................... 142 Biological .............................................................................................................................................................................. 143 Figure 6.17 Possible DPRK Biological Agents ....................................................................................................................................... 144 Figure 6.18 Civilian DPRK Biological Facilities .................................................................................................................................... 146 Figure 6.19 Map of Possible DPRK Civilian Biological Facilities ................................................................................................... 147 ROK NUCLEAR DEVELOPMENTS .................................................................................................................................... 148 Initial Weapons Research ............................................................................................................................................. 148 Reprocessing and Enrichment Activities ................................................................................................................ 149 ROK MISSILE DEVELOPMENTS ...................................................................................................................................... 150 The Early Program ？ The NHK Program ................................................................................................................ 151 The Hyunmu-3 Cruise Missile ...................................................................................................................................... 151 ROK Space Programs ...................................................................................................................................................... 152 ROK’S CHEMICAL AND BIOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENTS ................................................................................................. 153 Chemical ................................................................................................................................................................................ 153 Biological .............................................................................................................................................................................. 154 SECTION 7: THE BROADER BALANCE OF WMD, MISSILE, AND STRATEGIC FORCES ................ 155 THE BALANCE OF WEAPONS OF MASS EFFECTIVENESS ............................................................................................. 159 CHINA AND STRATEGIC ASYMMETRIC WARFARE......................................................................................................... 160 THE US AND EXTENDED REGIONAL DETERRENCE ...................................................................................................... 164 THE STRATEGIC “OFFENSIVE” CHARACTER OF “DEFENSIVE” WEAPONS ................................................................ 165 Figure 7.1: US and Asian Nuclear Capable forces ................................................................................................................................ 168 Figure 7.2: Chinese Missile Forces: 2010 ............................................................................................................................................... 171