EXECUTIVE SUMMARY AND RECOMMENDATIONS................................................. i I. INTRODUCTION............................................................................................................. 1 II. RECENT DEVELOPMENTS.......................................................................................... 2 A. IMPLEMENTING THE 2007 AGREEMENTS ......................................................................................2 B. TENSIONS BUILD..........................................................................................................................2 C. THE TALKS BREAK DOWN...........................................................................................................3 D. ESCALATING TO A NUCLEAR TEST...............................................................................................3 III. WHY DID THE NORTH TEST AGAIN?...................................................................... 5 IV. GETTING BACK TO TALKS......................................................................................... 7 A. SETTING PRIORITIES ....................................................................................................................7 B. THE U.S. ROLE. ...........................................................................................................................7 1. Ending neglect .............................................................................................................................7 2. How to approach talks .................................................................................................................8 3. Ending over-reliance on China ....................................................................................................9 C. THE UN SECURITY COUNCIL .......................................................................................................9 D. INTERNATIONAL COORDINATION ...............................................................................................10 E. RELATIONS ON THE KOREAN PENINSULA...................................................................................11 F. JAPAN.......................................................................................................................................11 V. THE KEY ISSUES .......................................................................................................... 12 A. VERIFICATION AND DISMANTLEMENT........................................................................................12 B. DISABLEMENT AND ENERGY ASSISTANCE..................................................................................14 C. DESTINATION OF FISSILE MATERIAL..........................................................................................15 D. PEACEFUL NUCLEAR ENERGY....................................................................................................15 E. NPT AND IAEA SAFEGUARDS...................................................................................................16 F. KOREAN PENINSULA PEACE REGIME .........................................................................................16 G. DIPLOMATIC RELATIONS ...........................................................................................................17 H. INSPECTION OF U.S. MILITARY BASES IN THE SOUTH ................................................................17 VI. INSURING AGAINST TALKS FAILING ................................................................... 18 A. DETERRENCE .............................................................................................................................18 B. CONTAINMENT..........................................................................................................................18 C. HUMANITARIAN ASSISTANCE ....................................................................................................19 VII. CONCLUSION............................................................................................................... 20 APPENDICES A. MAP OF NORTH KOREA ...................................................................................................................21 B. ABOUT THE INTERNATIONAL CRISIS GROUP ....................................................................................22 C. CRISIS GROUP REPORTS AND BRIEFINGS ON ASIA SINCE 2006 ........................................................23 D. CRISIS GROUP BOARD OF TRUSTEES................................................................................................26