I. INTRODUCTION II. BACKGROUND AND KEY ISSUES A. DPRK AND DETERRENCE B. DPRK MILITARY DOCTRINE III. BALLISTIC MISSILES A. HISTORY OF THE PROGRAM B. INVENTORY C. FROM SIMPLE NUCLEAR DEVICES TO MISSILE WARHEADS D. COMMAND AND CONTROL OF NUCLEAR WEAPONS E. ARMING AND FIRING NUCLEAR MISSILES F. MISSILES AND SCIENTIFIC NATIONALISM G. MISSILE EXPORTS IV. KEY RISKS A. WEAPONS USE 1. Attack: deliberate, accidental, unauthorised 2. Retaliation, escalation 3. Internal use in a power struggle B. PROLIFERATION, SALES, TRANSFERS C. ARMS RACES V. POSSIBLE RESPONSES A. NON-PROLIFERATION, COUNTER-PROLIFERATION AND EXPORT CONTROLS 1. Non-proliferation and counter-proliferation 2. Export controls B. MISSILE DEFENCE C. DETERRENCE AND COUNTER-STRIKE CAPABILITIES D. EMERGENCY RESPONSE PLANNING E. DIPLOMACY, ENGAGEMENT AND ARMS CONTROL 1. Six-Party Talks 2. Missile Technology Control Regime/Hague Code of Conduct 3. G-8 Global Partnership 4. Missile disarmament and the peaceful use of outer space 5. Issue linkage, inter-Korean arms control and regional security mechanisms VI. CONCLUSION APPENDICES A. GLOSSARY OF ABBREVIATIONS AND TERMS B. NORTH KOREAN MISSILE RANGE: NORTH EAST ASIA C. NORTH KOREAN MISSILE RANGE: PACIFIC REGION D. NORTH KOREAN NUCLEAR WARHEAD AND MISSILE FACILITIES E. DPRK MISSILES F. ARMS CONTROL AND EXPORT CONTROL REGIMES G. ABOUT THE INTERNATIONAL CRISIS GROUP H. CRISIS GROUP REPORTS AND BRIEFINGS ON ASIA SINCE 2006 I. CRISIS GROUP BOARD OF TRUSTEES.