지난 15년간 북한경제는 비공식 사경제의 발전과 외화벌이 덕분에 대체로 회복세를 보였던 것으로 추측된다. 그런데 최근 북한의 외화벌이 전선에 적신호가 켜졌다. 주된 외화수입원인 대중국 광산물 수출이 지난해부터 감소하기 시작한 것이다. 비공식 사경제가 일반주민의 생활기반이라면, 외화벌이는 정권과 권력층의 경제적 토대이다. 북한의 외화벌이는 국영기업․국가기관이 주도하고 있고, 벌어들인 외화 중 많은 부분이 통치자금으로 사용되고 있다. 또 공식․비공식 부문 간 거래가 활발해 외화벌이는 비공식 경제에도 큰 영향을 미친다. 외화벌이가 제대로 되지 않으면 전반적인 경제운용에 차질이 빚어질 수 있으므로 최근의 수출 감소 추세는 북한 당국에게 중대한 문제가 아닐 수 없다. 북한의 외화벌이 사정은 얼마나 나빠지고 있으며, 앞으로의 추세는 또 어떻게 될까? 이 글에서는 이 문제의 답을 얻기 위해 주요 외화벌이 사업의 과거 추세와 향후 전망을 살펴본다. <표 1>에서 보듯이 북한은 지난 20여 년 동안 여러 종류의 외화벌이 사업을 벌여왔는데, 대외환경의 변화에 따라 어떤 사업은 크게 확대되었고 어떤 사업은 축소되거나 중단되었다...

Ⅰ. 서론 ······································································································ 1 Ⅱ. 대중국 광산물 수출 추세와 전망 ··························································· 5 1. 최근 수출 동향 ························································································ 5 2. 중장기 전망 ··························································································· 12 Ⅲ. 대중국 공산품 수출 추세와 전망 ························································ 18 1. 대중국 의류 수출 추세 ·········································································· 18 2. 수출산업 육성 및 경제특구․개발구 발전 전망 ········································· 23 Ⅳ. 남북경협을 통한 외화벌이 추세와 전망 ··············································· 27 1. 대남한 수출 추세 ··················································································· 27 2. 개성공단 사업 발전 전망 ······································································· 28 3. 기타 남북경협 사업 전망 ······································································· 30 Ⅴ. 기타 외화벌이 사업 전망 ···································································· 33 1. 해외 노동자 송출 실태와 전망 ······························································· 33 2. 관광사업 전망 ························································································ 42 Ⅵ. 결론 ···································································································· 46