This English translation is a summarized and edited version of the research paper “Variables and Pathways of Changes in North Korea: Focused on Different Combination of ‘Nuclear Issues’ and ‘Reform‧Opening’” by Young-Ja Park, Eun Mee Jeong, and Ki Bum Han (Seoul: Korea Institute for National Unification, December 2019). The analysis, comments, and opinions contained in this paper are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent the views of the Korea Institute for National Unification.

1. Purpose of the Research 2. Concepts and Combination of Two Variables: “Nuclear Issues” and “Reform·Opening” 3. Historical Experiences from North Korea’s Nuclear Policy 4. Historical Experiences of North Korea’s Reform‧Opening Policy 5. Type 1: Ideal Type of North Korea’s ‘Denuclearization +Reform‧Opening’ 6. Type 2: A Highly Likely Scenario of North Korea’s ‘Nuclear Freeze+Opening’ 7. Type 3: Maintaining the Status Quo of North Korea’s ‘Nuclear Advancement+Self-reliance (Hold-up of Reform ‧Opening)’ 8. Implications from Comparison to Cases of Foreign Countries: Pakistan and China 9. Policy Implications for Each Type 10. Overall Prospects and Responsive Measures